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Bookmark and Share Earthquake Prediction and Emergency Preparedness around the New Madrid Fault

According to the United States Geological Survey (USGS), earthquake prediction in the Midwestern States during the next 50 years is a 25-40% probability of having an earthquake magnitude of 6.0 or greater generated from the New Madrid Fault in Southeastern Missouri. A New Madrid Earthquake of magnitude 7.0-8.0 similar to any of the three large earthquakes of 1811-1812 has a 7-10% probability of occurrence. Since most structures in the Midwest were not designed or built to withstand back- and forth- ground shaking, such earthquake scenario would cause substantial economic losses and extensive earthquake damage to buildings in Tennessee, Missouri, Kentucky and Illinois. Less losses are expected in Alabama, Arkansas, Indiana, and Mississippi. These 8 states represent the region of potential impact from a New Madrid Earthquake. According to a recent study by Mid America Earthquake Center (MAE) at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, a magnitude 7.7 worst-case scenario earthquakes on a state-by-state basis would cause a regional damage of a total of 84,567 single-family homes and other residential, commercial and industrial buildings, from which 36,891 would suffer complete destruction, where about 122,000 persons would be displaced. Unreinforced masonry construction in Memphis (Tennessee) is vulnerable to earthquakes even during moderate ground shaking. Recent earthquakes in Haiti, Chili, New Zealand and Japan serve as a wake-up calls for earthquake preparedness and emergency preparedness in the Midwest that has lagged far behind as compared to the West Coast. Earthquake preparedness requires homeowners to be aware of the location of their home with respect to the New Madrid Fault, areas of soil liquefaction shown on USGS maps, and knowledge on factors influencing earthquake damage to their homes. It also requires a plan for disaster preparedness to ensure home safety through seismic retrofit of the structural system of the home and risk mitigation of home contents. Earthquake insurance is an effective way to reduce the potential costs of a future New Madrid Earthquake in addition to or in lieu of seismic retrofitting. Emergency preparedness requires purchasing earthquake survival kit for the household, emergency kits for household members, as well as maintaining emergency food and water for at least 2 weeks all-year round. Preparedness would ease the burden and help you and your family to return back quickly to your normal lifestyle.

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